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Notes

Working notes on order flow, market microstructure and building the terminal. No signals, no equity curves, no course upsell.

Nothing published yet. These are the pieces queued up, in roughly the order they will land. Join the early-access list and you will get them as they go out.

Why your footprint numbers disagree with mine

Many feeds reuse one message type for volume and VWAP updates. Counting those as trades inflates volume and quietly drifts delta all session. Where the filtering has to happen, and how to test whether your platform does it.

Reading a pulled wall

A streak that ends the moment price arrives is not a failed defence — it is a level that was never going to be filled. Telling a spoof from real absorption, with both drawn side by side.

Biggest × total: what one number per price throws away

A 200-contract order and forty 5-contract orders both total 200. They behave nothing alike. Why the split matters more than the sum, and what it looks like when a single order is doing the work.

68% or 70%? Where the value area convention comes from

The one-standard-deviation figure is 68%. The 70% you see everywhere is a rounding that stuck. A short history, and whether the difference ever changes a read.

What a $2k drawdown limit actually requires

Before any strategy, a trailing drawdown imposes arithmetic on position sizing. Working through what a funded account can and cannot survive, with the numbers.

Range bars manufacture mean reversion

A backtest on range bars can show an edge that vanishes entirely on time bars. Why the bar construction creates the signal, and how to catch it before you trade it.

Auto-contrast, and why raising the black point deletes information

A heatmap that hides thin liquidity is telling you there are no resting orders there, which is false. Response curves versus cut-offs, and what each one costs you.

Absorption at a high is not buying at a high

Heavy sell aggression into a level that holds means someone passive is taking the other side. Reading the delta profile against the volume profile to tell them apart.

Setting up a two-monitor order-flow desk

Which panels earn their screen space, what to put where, and how to save it as a workspace you can restore in one click.

Your backtest found your simulator’s bugs first

A wrong-side trailing stop once produced a 100% win rate over 18,980 trades. What a large parameter search actually surfaces, and how to tell an edge from a defect.

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